Wallet Flows Are Clues
Coins just moved to an exchange. What do you actually know?
The idea
Deposits to or withdrawals from known exchange wallets may suggest intent, but they do not prove a future trade.
In the real world
BTC moves to an exchange, yet may be collateral rather than a sale.
Going deeper
A deposit to an exchange establishes location and possibility. It does not establish intent, and the same transaction is consistent with several outcomes that never involve a sale.
Collateral for a loan or a derivatives position, a custody migration, an internal transfer, or providing liquidity all look identical on-chain. Commentary that converts a deposit into an imminent sale is adding a claim the data does not contain. The useful discipline is to list the alternative explanations before accepting the dramatic one, since the dramatic reading is the one that travels.
Where it stops applying
In aggregate and over time, exchange flows do carry some information about positioning. The error is reading a single transaction as a prediction.
Why it matters
It separates what a transfer shows from what commentary claims it predicts.
Try this today
Treat flows as probabilistic evidence and seek corroboration.
Test yourself
A large BTC deposit lands on an exchange and posts describe imminent selling. Name two other explanations consistent with the same transaction.
Show the answer
It could be collateral for a loan or a derivatives position, or a custody or internal transfer. A deposit establishes location and possibility, not intention, and the same on-chain event fits several outcomes that never involve a sale.
Learn this in the feed Answering from memory, then again days later, is what makes it stick.