Availability Bias
Does it feel likely, or is it just easy to picture?
The idea
We judge how likely something is by how easily an example comes to mind, not by how often it occurs.
In the real world
A vivid recent failure makes a rare risk feel imminent.
Going deeper
The mind estimates frequency by how easily an example is retrieved, which is a reasonable shortcut in a world where common things are encountered often. Media coverage breaks the shortcut, because coverage is driven by novelty and severity rather than by frequency.
The practical form is that a vivid recent event reorders priorities without any change in the underlying risks. The correction is to ask for the rate rather than the example: how often does this occur to organisations like ours, compared with the other risks competing for the same budget.
Where it stops applying
Ease of recall is sometimes a genuine signal — things that come to mind readily often are common. The bias appears when retrieval is driven by vividness rather than by exposure.
Why it matters
It explains why attention and memory quietly stand in for probability in most quick judgements.
Try this today
When something feels likely, ask whether you are recalling frequency or vividness.
Test yourself
After a widely reported security breach, a board wants to spend heavily on that specific attack type. What should be checked before the budget moves?
Show the answer
How often that attack actually occurs against organisations like theirs, against the other risks competing for the same money. The breach changed how easily the scenario comes to mind, and coverage is driven by novelty rather than frequency.
Learn this in the feed Answering from memory, then again days later, is what makes it stick.